Nashville rain tonight: Timing, flood risk
Midstate Daily may earn a commission from Amazon links.
A warm, dry Tuesday in Middle Tennessee will give way to a soaking rain tonight, and it could make for a slow Wednesday morning drive.
The National Weather Service in Nashville expects a strong cold front to bring showers and thunderstorms into the metro tonight, with the rain lasting into Wednesday afternoon.
When the rain arrives
Tuesday will be mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 79 in Nashville and Murfreesboro and near 78 in Franklin, according to the weather service. South winds around 15 mph could gust to 30 mph.
Showers and storms are possible between 9 and 11 p.m., then become likely overnight. The chance of rain tonight is 90%. Rain is not expected before polls close at 7 p.m.
Showers and storms continue Wednesday until about 3 p.m. Temperatures will reach the mid-70s in the morning, then fall into the low 70s in the afternoon as the front passes.
How much rain
The weather service forecast calls for about three-quarters of an inch to 1 inch tonight in Nashville and Franklin, plus another half to three-quarters of an inch Wednesday. Its forecasters said the Weather Prediction Center expects 1 to 2 inches across the area.
Moisture levels in the air will be unusually high for November, forecasters wrote Tuesday. Storms should stay fairly weak, which lowers the chance of intense downpours.
Where flooding is most likely
The weather service rates the chance of flash flooding tonight as low, at 10% to 20%, mainly for areas along and west of Interstate 65. Forecasters singled out Dickson, Williamson, Maury and Lewis counties as places where rainfall could run higher than forecast, and the Weather Prediction Center has that area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall.
No watches or warnings were in effect for Middle Tennessee as of early Tuesday.
Drivers should allow extra time Wednesday morning and never drive through water covering a road. The weather service says just 12 inches of moving water can carry away most cars. Anyone heading out in the rain can pack a compact umbrella.
Cooler after the storm
Skies clear Wednesday night, with patchy fog and a low near 50. Thursday will be mostly sunny with a high near 73.
The weekend turns cooler, with highs in the low to mid-60s and morning lows in the 30s and 40s. Some spots could dip into the upper 20s early next week, though forecasters said that could change.
Sources
- National Weather Service: Seven-day forecast for Nashville
- National Weather Service: Seven-day forecast for Franklin
- National Weather Service Nashville: Area Forecast Discussion (Nov. 3, 2026)
- Weather Prediction Center: Excessive Rainfall Outlook
- National Weather Service: Turn Around Don't Drown
Affiliate disclosure: Midstate Daily is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program. We may earn a commission when you buy through Amazon links on this page, at no extra cost to you. Links never affect our news coverage.